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Anti-Western Promoter Of the New UnionThe formation of the Russia-Belarus Union has been in the works for nearly ten years, leading many analysts of the post-Soviet political scene to doubt that it will ever take place. Alternatively, the fervent supporters of Belarus' independence see in the integration process a growing danger of annexation, while the Russian nationalists see it as a means of restoring Russia's greatness. Recently, the Belarusian political analyst Vitali Silitski has called this drawn out, up-and-down process "a virtual integration of a sinusoidal nature" with rosy pronouncements invariably followed by quarrelsome denunciations.Its 1996 ceremonial inauguration in the Kremlin by Yeltsin and Lukashenka was sealed by brotherly embraces and toasts of undying friendship. Soon afterwards, however, while Yeltsin was preoccupied with chaotic events in Moscow, Lukashenka was actively engaged in developing a solid grass roots support by frequently visiting Russia's neglected regions. There he very effectively played on the growing Soviet nostalgia by championing the restoration of the Soviet Union's past greatness. He promised to devote the energy of a 40 year old leader to that cause, compared to the blundering of an 80(sic) year old Yeltsin, who was then in his sixties. Subsequently, this lengthy virtual integration process has given ample speculative material to a variety of specialists on the post-Soviet scene. Both positive and negative aspects of such Union were widely discussed. Authoritative Russian think tanks listed a number of advantages for Russia resulting from such a Union. In 1997 one such institution with close links to the Kremlin published an extensive study on the developments within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The study urged taking advantage of pro-Russian Lukashenka's stay in power to secure the Union as the first step in expanding Russian influence in the world. In 2002, Sergei Karaganov, the head of a semi-official think tank, declared: "The process of national self-identification, of independence, is developing in Belarus, and the sooner we put a stop to it, the cheaper it will be for Russia. And this (step) is essential in order for us to hold onto the Kaliningrad oblast." And finally, Belarus serves well as the site of many Russian military bases, including newly placed early warning systems. Serious disadvantages were raised as well. The unreformed Belarusian economy might end up being a substantial burden for Russia for a long time. So will the almost total state control of Belarusian industry, and the authoritarian form of government. Both were very different (until recently) from the fledgling democracy of Russia. The latest evaluations of the integration process generally reach a conclusion that Lukashenka is determined to maintain Belarusian sovereignty while extracting maximal advantages from Russia, now fearful of yet another 'color' revolution on its periphery. Such a conclusion is believed to be flawed because it does not take into account the internal situation in Belarus. Most of the comparative cost-benefit analysis has been done only with Russia in mind. And more importantly, the analysts do not take into account Lukashenka's driving ambition to be the restorer of the Soviet state, or the builder of a new Russian-dominated and virulently anti Western Slavic power. With all his unpredictability, Lukashenka has consistently been a promoter of all things Russian, including a union with Russia. To that end he has established strict authoritarian control of Belarus, in order to have it in place as a dependable power base in advancing his plans for a role on the Russian stage, whether it be around the end of Putin?s term in office in 2008, or during some future chaos in Russia, one possibly triggered by a drop in world oil prices. Lukashenka's destruction of all aspects of Belarusian cultural identity serves to establish a state that will soon become Belarusian in name only, and thus more easily integrated into Greater Russia. The russification campaign now exceeds anything experienced during the Soviet times. It started immediately after his election by reducing the status of the Belarusian language, followed by eliminating it from the media, and effectively from the overall educational system. The fraudulent referendum of 2004 allows Lukashenka to run again in 2006, and if necessary, five years later, all the while tightening his control on the country, waiting for the right opportunity to exert his anti Western influence in Russian affairs. If the world's democracies are interested in preventing such future Russian expansionism with everything that it might entail, it behooves them to prevent the first expansion from taking place, namely the absorption of Belarus, whether it be economic or territorial. To accomplish that, both the European states and the United States need to focus on undoing all of Lukashenka-imposed political, economic and ideological controls and providing essential support for the cultural revival of the Belarusian nation and its return to democracy. Walter Stankievich This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 17, No. 4 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2005 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmail.com Walter Stankievich
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Thoughts and Observations
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| StatementBy the Office for a Democratic Belarus (Brussels) And the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (23.01.2011) |
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| STATEMENT (23.01.2011) |
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| Demonstration in London (23.01.2011) |
| In Belarus, a Slide Toward Eastern Aggression (23.01.2011) |
| The Center for Belarusian Studies (23.01.2011) |
| Blood and Special Operations in Belarus Politics (23.01.2011) |
| Opinion - The EU Has no Choice But to Continue Dialogue With Belarus (23.01.2011) |
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