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Simulated Elections : Guaranteed ResultsOver seven years ago the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) called on the Government of Belarus to take the following steps to ensure an environment for democratic transformation: improve the Electoral Code and its processes, create an environment free of fear, provide media access for all points of view and to restore power to the parliament and the courts.None of these recommended steps were taken then or in the years afterwards, despite nearly unanimous worldwide agreement that all the subsequent elections were neither free nor fair and despite the threats of serious sanctions. Quite the opposite. On the eve of the current presidential elections, the Electoral Code has been stiffened by criminalizing the criticism of the sitting President, the climate of fear has greatly intensified, access to state media -- unavailable while the independent press has been practically shut down, the courts made totally subservient and the parliament has not a single opposition member. The current presidential electoral process started in effect at the Black Sea resort of Sochi on December 15 when Lukashenka visited Russian President Putin and got his concurrence for holding early elections in Belarus. Reportedly the date was chosen in order to minimize the time for the unity democratic candidate to become well known, and also to avoid the potential embarrassment of a messy July election in Belarus while Putin will be presiding over the G8 Summit in St. Petersburg. Next day the rubber-stamp parliament of Belarus approved the date of March 19, 2006 for the election, and the electoral process proceeded according to plan. The candidates who were able to collect more than 100, 000 supporting signatures were registered, the electoral commissions at all levels were formed with nearly total exclusion of opposition members, and less than 25 days were given for actual campaigning ahead of the start of early voting on March 14. This totally unmonitored week of early voting is notorious for the level of falsification and coercive voting. The candidates were given air time of one pre-recorded hour each on state television and radio in unwieldy half-hour blocks. While their sharp criticism was cut out, Lukashenka 'graciously' declined to participate, with no apparent loss, since he monopolizes the airwaves anyway, and the names of the opposition candidates are studiously barely mentioned in the state media. Yet despite all these impediments, the name recognition of the opposition candidates rose dramatically. The Unity candidate Alexander Milinkevich?s rallies are attended by the thousands all around the country, and he repeatedly calls on the voters to come to the center of Minsk at the end of voting March 19 to demonstrate their resolve not to have the election stolen. The regime's reaction is brutally sharp. Over 300 campaign activists, including the Belarusian Popular Front leader Viachorka are arrested and immediately sentenced to jail terms which conveniently extend past the Election day. The KGB 'discovers a terrorist plot' and warns the populace to stay at home after voting, in order to avoid injuries caused by the terrorists. This plot is attributed to Partnership, an NGO group experienced in election monitoring and funded by US. This rather clumsy accusation is intended to keep people away from street demonstrations while neutralizing an effective monitoring group and accusing the United States of funding an anti-government coup in Belarus. All this took place before the Election Day on March 19 as part of the simulated elections. And at the end of the day, the results were indeed guaranteed The Soviet-style turnout of 93% and the 83% vote ascribed to Lukashenka exceeded even the 75% 'elegant victory' claimed at the 2001 election. The Gallup/Baltic Surveys Group stated that due to the repressive conditions no independent polling was possible or credible. (The respected Russian Levada poll announced their preliminary results with Lukashenka at 47%, Milinkevich at 26%, with 30% of those polled refusing to say. Later, Levada said that their results were not conclusive.) Outside monitors led by the OSCE declared that the elections were not democratic. In that they were joined by EU, the Council of Europe, many European governments, and the United States which declared the election illegitimate and supported the opposition's call for new elections (see the statement on page 3.) However such view was not unanimous; Russian President Putin sent Lukashenka his warm congratulations, later duplicated by Iran and Cuba. Using Internet and external media, Alexander Milinkevich called on the voters to come at the end of the day to the October Square in downtown Minsk and peacefully protest the fraudulent election. Despite near blizzard conditions, according to reports from the square by RFE/RL, eventually some 30,000 mainly young people were in the square, waving flags and chanting slogans. The first tents of various shapes, sizes and colors started appearing. The square was surrounded by police and various security units that started arresting people bringing food, hot tea and warm clothing. Some people leaving the square, among them the leaders of the major parties, were also arrested. A few thousand remained through the first night, and were joined the next day by additional thousands and many more tents. Popular singers and known rock musicians contributed to the festive atmosphere despite freezing temperatures. By the third night, the diehards, in numbers varying from 500 to a few thousand, decided to stay until March 25, the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence of Belarus, proclaimed in 1918, and ignored by the current regime. Milinkevich vowed to stay with the demonstrators. Outside the square the situation remained tense. After all, Lukashenka had threatened to 'wring necks'. Police and internal troop vehicles coursed through the city. Wave of detentions and summary courts? verdicts continued, some foreign observers and parlamentarians were deported, and journalists were beaten up or deported. The 'terrorist plot' trumpeted by the KGB in advance of the election, turned out not to be. Throughout the country a fragile sense of hope grew, and according to many reports, the all-pervasive fear had diminished. But it will take more to dislodge the dictator who has established a system of repression approaching that of Stalin. In concluding, it needs to be stated that if given an adequate amount of support from the outside, similar to that given to Solidarity in Poland in the 80s, the Belarusian people have it in them to achieve freedom. They are now represented by the tens of thousands of young people at demonstrations, the hundreds of thousands of activists working during the campaign, and by the millions of plain citizens who voted against the dictator. Their Day Is Bound to Come ! This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 18, No. 1 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2006 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmail.com Walter Stankievich
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