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Big Stakes in Belarus’ PollsThe upcoming legislative elections in Belarus on September 28 may be another meaningless exercise in simulated democracy, as were those in 2004 and 2000, but this time stakes seem to be much higher than previously for both the ruling regime and the opposition. And for the West as well.Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka sent an unambiguous signal in an interview with The Financial Times and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on September 19 that he wants the West to recognize these polls as more or less democratic. And it is fairly comprehensible why. In the wake of Russia’s war with Georgia, Lukashenka must realize that his policy of integration with his eastern neighbor may soon be facing a crucial dilemma — either to steer Belarus toward full independence from Russia (which means losing most, if not all, of Russia’s subsidies and benefits bestowed upon the Belarusian economy) or to surrender part of the country’s economic and political sovereignty in exchange for staying in power in Minsk for some more time. When the newly resurgent Russia did not hesitate to use tanks in Georgia, why can’t Moscow now use economic leverage in Belarus for asserting its influence in the ”near abroad”? But to balance his ”eastern vector” of Belarusian politics with a ”Western one” Lukashenka needs to make some democratic concessions in order to break the 12-year-long political isolation in the West. According to Lukashenka, by allowing the opposition to be represented on district election commissions, he made enough progress on the path toward a democratic electoral process to earn the West’s appreciation. The opposition, however, is of a different opinion. According to the opposition, election falsifications essentially take place at the level of local election commissions, which are in total control of the authorities. Therefore, the opposition argues, the progress in democratization in Belarus is illusionary. Besides, there is no mechanism in place for monitoring the security of ballot boxes during early voting or even verifying the voters lists by opposition representatives or international observers. In other words, the September 28 elections in Belarus are business as usual. These are the main reasons why some leaders of the opposition initially opted to boycott the vote. But they were not heeded by rank-and-file activists, who managed to register as candidates and chose to campaign even in such an unfavorable election environment. There are many arguments put forward against the boycott but the most essential one boils down to the conclusion that the boycotts of the 2000 and 2004 elections by the opposition have proven totally ineffective. Given such an insubordination among their ranks, the United Democratic Forces — the main coordinating body of the Belarusian opposition — have half-heartedly withdrawn from the boycott. But, because of these contradictory moves, the opposition’s election campaign lacks vigor and passion. The only hope of the opposition seems to be in the circulating rumors that Lukashenka, in order to invite a positive assessment of the elections from the West, will allow some opposition candidates to be ”appointed” to the 110-seat Chamber of Representatives. However, regardless of the election results, it appears that Belarusian opposition parties are poised to undergo serious crises in the wake of the vote. Because this election campaign has clearly shown that there is a serious generation gap in the Belarusian opposition between leaders and rank-and-file activists, which increasingly affects the opposition’s political strategy. The West’s stake in these Belarusian elections seems to be quite significant, too. It is apparent that the West is very interested in some democratic progress in Belarus in order to give the Lukashenka regime a slightly higher score than during previous election campaigns. The temptation to drag Belarus somewhat further from Russia — which has been obviously rekindled by Lukashenka’s reluctance to follow Moscow in its recognizance of Abkhazia and South Ossetia — is strong. Therefore, if the upcoming elections are not too blatantly rigged, we may witness a sort of about-face in the West’s approach to Lukashenka. This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 20, No. 3 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2008 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmailcom Jan Maksymiuk
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