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It’s Time to Demonstrate PowerThe nature of the “election” and its result is quite clear today. Democrats making up only 0.07% out of the total number of precinct commission members, vividly demonstrates the fact that the regime is not going to lose control over the chief element of the elections: the vote count. At the same time, opposition representatives make up about 40% of the total number of candidates for deputies, writes Andrei Sannikau, the leader of the civil campaign “European Belarus”.Even in 2004, the opposition had 0.2% in precinct election commissions. How many oppositionists were elected to the parliament in 2004? None. And at that time, many more pro-democracy candidates were nominated. This year the proportion is almost the same, but not quite. Half as many candidates have been nominated. It is evidence that there is no desire, either to participate in such an “election,” or to vote. Even the chairperson of the Central Election Commission, Lidziya Yarmoshyna, complains that people won’t come to ballot-boxes. But there is one more circumstance which differs this year from the year 2004: the weight of the opposition’s decisions is much heavier. Representatives of democrats, who make up 40% of the total number of the candidates, can adopt an important decision, which would demonstrate the real power of the opposition. If democrats withdraw from the “elections,” there would be one candidate in almost a half of the constituencies, and the plan of the authorities, which is aimed at guaranteeing recognition of the regime, would fail totally. Then a serious discussion on holding real elections and return of Belarus into the European family could begin. Without a right to vote Amazing things happen with dictatorships. After some time, representatives of the democratic world ”get tired” of defending their own principles, they get bored of fighting for human rights, and they seem to be ready to agree that the path to democracy goes through a dictatorship. It is hard to explain in any other way, why international observers believe it to be a step forward when opposition representatives, without a right to vote, are present in the Central Election Committee. Is it really a democratic breakthrough that spectators have been invited to the show in the CEC? Considering that our parliament is not a real parliament, but a sham, subordinate to the executive power, and the people are deprived of the right to vote, is the opposition’s presence in the CEC, without a voice indeed a loud achievement of democracy? The main question is: how to return to people their voices and the right to elect their leaders. It can in no way be achieved through becoming a member of the CEC without a right to vote, without a possibility to control vote counts at parliamentary elections, which are subordinate to, and controlled by the dictatorship. Elections or privatization Actually, this “election” in Belarus has attracted great attention to our country, not because a chance for democratization appeared, (and it has appeared), but because the hard situation could force the dictatorial regime to sell out state possessions. Everyone understands that with the existing international reputation of the regime, and while the market economy is absent, property will be sold cheaply. Business is business. Adventurous businessmen from the West could come to Belarus just on the basis of the regime’s promises and predictions of forthcoming economic reforms. But what for, if little means will be spent on political lobbying and international recognition of the dictatorship could take place? There have been such experiences: with the USSR, with Latin America’s dictatorships, and then with Central Asian regimes. However, businessmen understand perfectly well that their chances of survival in Belarus have an exact numerical value: 0.07%. It is equal to the number of oppositionists allowed to join precinct elections commissions. But if the political smoke-screen in the form of the regime’s recognition would be guaranteed, then the risk’s magnitude would not be important. In case of failure all expenses could be covered by one’s own states, using state insurance of investments, saying something like “We were not warned that there is a dictatorship there.” In general, today shifting the responsibility for all expenses of private business of democratic states on to governments of these states is being lobbied. Why is everyone so excited? Such an administrative economic wonder, as in Belarus, is unprecedented for thousands of kilometers either to the north, or to the south, or to the east, not even speaking of the west. Who wants to be late for dividing the Belarusian “pie” into parts? Russians are coming In the interim, Russia invaded independent Georgia and does not want to leave. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, under the pretext of defending its “own” citizens and its interests, Russia has carried out an invasion and reveled in it. Lukashenka has enjoyed this as well, judging by his statements. First, he seemed to be frightened, and kept silent, but after a reprimand from the Kremlin, he found touching words about the aggression’s “beauty”, so that even Russian leaders were taken aback. They could not have invented such words. They were stunned, but made note to remember this. If a person is so sensitive to the international situation, then he will not object if a few divisions with nuclear arms are sent to him, for example, to finish the harvesting campaign successfully. And then they would be retained to ensure introduction of the single currency and carrying out privatization “properly.” Historically, in supporting personal rule regime, Lukashenka maneuvered on the Russian field rather successfully, promising indestructible devotion and strategic permissiveness. Today, his possibilities have significantly narrowed, and Russia is demanding payment on accounts more and more insistently. In addition, energy blackmailing has become a habitual instrument in Russia’s world policy. How will the upcoming “elections” help solve not just problems, but real threats to Belarus’ independence? What could the participation of the opposition in the rightless parliament do for defense of our independence? Should participation in the regime’s scenarios be discussed at all, while they are designed only for defense of Lukashenka’s personal power? The game, according to the rules imposed by the regime and international mediators, between the money and the dictatorship could be too dangerous. What does it mean, to go all the way? For today there are two approaches to the election which is to take place in a month: a boycott and participation. The party opposition has discussed the situation several times, trying to adopt the most advantageous decision, put forth conditions which haven’t been accepted by the regime, however, ultimately deciding to take part in the “election”. Despite the repressions, the opposition parties have engaged in full-fledged participation, at all stages of the electoral campaign: nomination of candidates, collection of signatures, and nomination of candidates to electoral commissions of all levels. The final stage is left, the election itself. The opposition has decided to take part in the vote with a message regarding the necessity of a civil control over the authorities. It is really necessary now. It is extremely important today, in order to prevent robbing the country, and to prevent Belarus’ from being drawn into Russia’s military plans. However, participation in pseudo-elections will not bring us closer to solving the problem of civil control. On the contrary, this will decrease the influence of the opposition. Participation in the “elections” according to the regime’s rules, will be result in recognition of the regime’s “democratic character”, vesting it with all the necessary authority for further decisions, which could be exceptionally dangerous for Belarus. Furthermore, it is unlikely to be a good excuse later, to state that “we were taking part in the electoral farce to the end”. Refuse to let the occasion slip The release of Alyaksandr Kazulin, Andrei Kim and Syarhei Parsyukevich has created new hope in the society. Solidarity with the political prisoners inside the country, international demands to release them and the sanctions imposed by the US for violation of human rights have made the Belarusian authorities release the innocent prisoners of conscience. It was obviously done in the run-up to the elections, with the expectation that such a noticeable and undoubtedly positive step would become the main argument in favor of the regime’s recognition. However, the release of political prisoners does not affect the nature of the “election”, which remains undemocratic. The release of political prisoners should be used, not as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the west, but as an impulse for real transformations in the country. It is crucial to think how to advance forward. The enormous amount of work done by the parties, candidates and their teams must not be used by the regime and some foreign advisors to advance their scenario, which would be disastrous for the opposition and for the country. Today it is said almost openly what this bargaining is about: one seat for the opposition in the “chamber of representatives”. It is simply humiliating. It is humiliating that such a plan is illegally forming behind the Belarusians’ back, if the parliament is in fact discussed. It is humiliating because the opposition is given a role of an actor with a non-speaking part, not of a participant in the politics. Today there are numerous possibilities to achieve real, positive changes in Belarus. People are not interested in the elections. Apart from the opposition’s internal discussions regarding its participation or non-participation, on the outside no one is speaking about the elections. People do not pin their hopes for change on electoral farces. They are tired of observing them for many years. We shouldn’t deceive people and the international community by participation in this farce, and we shouldn’t help reinforce the dictatorship. None of the conditions put forth by the opposition for its participation in the elections have been fulfilled. But the opposition has demonstrated its strength: 40 per cent of the candidates representing democratic forces. The time has come to demonstrate power. We should not waste such serious potential for the one deputy-democrat deal, authorized by the dictator. A decision, in principle, to withdraw all democratic candidates and not to participate in the electoral farce is needed. It is necessary to demand truly free parliamentary and presidential elections, to defend democratic demands on the Square. The conditions for holding new elections should become an issue for holding direct negotiations between the opposition and the regime, with the mediation of international organizations. Everyone will gain from that, primarily the people of Belarus. Source: Charter 97 Press Center, Aug. 25, 2008 This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 20, No. 3 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2008 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmailcom Andrei Sannikau, Charter?97 international coordinator
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