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Dialogue during 6-month probationThe months following the Parliamentary elections in Belarus have shown a great deal of activity on the part of the Belarusian government in both directions – East and West.Various ministers and President Alexander Lukashenka himself have engaged in what has become an annual event in haggling with Russia about discounted prices for oil and natural gas. Russia has extended another 2-billion dollar loan to Belarus in exchange for part-ownership of the pipeline systems traversing Belarus on the way to European consumers. In addition, the Belarusian government appears to have accepted an earlier demand by Vladimir Putin that trade between the two countries be conducted in Russian rubles, rather than in US dollars. It raised a valid concern that this may be the first step in fully accepting the Russian currency as its own, with the accompanying loss of sovereignty. President Lukashenka continues to pledge warm brotherly relations toward its big neighbor and promises to protect Russia’s western flank by allowing the stationing of Russian missile bases on Belarus’ territory. However, despite strong Russian pressure, Lukashenka has been less than enthusiastic in supporting Russia’s aggressive steps in the Caucasus, finally choosing not to recognize as independent states the two breakaway Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This latest maneuver by Lukashenka has led the West, and more specifically, the European Union, to initiate steps toward rapprochement with the Belarusian regime. It followed the release of three prominent political prisoners and Lukashenka’s promises of conducting free and fair parliamentary elections. Earlier, he even made this outlandish statement: “We want show the western countries and Russia how elections should be organized.” The release of the political prisoners has led the United States to remove sanctions against two subsidiaries of the Belanaftakhim concern, a major hard currency producer. And the barely perceptible improvement in the conduct of the elections has led the European Union to lift visa bans against most Belarusian high officials, including Lukashenka himself, despite the fact that the OSCE Election Observation Mission concluded that the elections ”ultimately fell short of OSCE commitments for democratic elections.” Not a single member of the opposition was elected to the 110 member body, considered to be most sanitized one under Lukashenka’s rule. The lifting of the sanctions and of the visa bans took place in October, and both penalties are to be automatically restored at the end of a 6-month period in April 2009, if the Belarus government fails to fulfill its promises of democratic and human rights changes. The warming of relations with EU has resulted in a number of meetings between Brussels and the Belarus officials. Belarus has been invited by EU to join its newly formed Eastern Partnership, a group of countries – former Soviet republics, west and south of the Russian Federation. EU has indicated its readiness to support the entry of Belarus into the World Trade Organization (WTO). The International Monetary Fund has shown remarkable patience in considering Belarus’ request for a two-billion dollar loan, despite the churlish declarations that “our country will not be dictated to by anyone.” The most recent advance in opening the dialogue between EU and the Belarusian government has been the arrival in Minsk of Helga Schmidt, the representative of Javier Solana, the EU High Commissioner for the Common Foreign and Security Policy. She has met with government representatives, some heads of the foreign missions in Minsk, and separately with selected members of the democratic opposition. The recent closer relations with the government officials already have an adverse effect on the democratic opposition in that despite assurances that the opposition will take part in any Western discussions with the government -- that has not happened. The opposition representatives are periodically consulted, and presumably informed of any results in the ongoing official discussions, but they are not an integral part of the process. The 12 points or requirements that the European Union placed on the government of Belarus in order to establish normal relations with the EU states, were quite demanding, and as such, they were generally ignored by the regime. They have now been drastically toned down by the EU, and reduced in number to five. The following demands have been completely eliminated: Independent investigation of the cases of disappeared persons, independent and impartial judicial system, the end of arbitrary arrest and detention, respect for the rights of workers and their trade unions, the rights of entrepreneurs, respect for the rights of national minorities, abolishment of the death penalty, making use of the help of international bodies and organizations in institutionalizing respect for the rights of its people. The remaining five points, as they were announced by the head of the European Commission’s office in Belarus – Jean-Eric Holzapfel: • There should be no more political prisoners. • Some improvements should be made with regard to media access. • Dialogue with OSCE on reforming the electoral law should continue. • The conditions regarding the NGO status and activity should be improved • Freedom of assembly and of the activities of political associations should be guaranteed. The Belarusian government has already introduced some minimal changes in response to some of the above points, and judging by past behavior, may consider them as having adequately fulfilled those reduced requirements: • A person accused of participating in organizing the traders’ street demonstration was sentenced last week to one year of corrective labor. The sentence was quickly reduced to a one year probation. • Two well known newspapers were recently allowed to be printed in Belarus and to be distributed through state channels. This permission is nevertheless restricted by specific and rather draconian rules. • The NGO “For Freedom”, headed by the former Presidential candidate Milinkevich, was finally officially registered upon the fourth attempt. Will Lukashenka’s renowned political gamesmanship be tolerated by the European Union in the dialogue during the remainder of the 6-month probation period? Will the EU and United States have the political courage to reintroduce the sanctions and the visa bans at that time, if necessary? Or will the EU forget its promise to the people of Belarus to restore some vestiges of democracy in the country, and focus only on the economic and trade interests of its member states? These crucial questions should not be forgotten or ignored during the ongoing dialogue. However, the following possibly even more important questions should be kept in mind: What will an expansionist and newly aggressive Russia do to increase its control over its near-abroad, including Belarus? Will the economically-cornered Lukashenka sell out his country to Russia for a promise of retaining at least a portion of his current power, influence or wealth? This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 20, No. 4 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2008 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmailcom Walter Stankievich
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Thoughts and Observations
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