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The Joint Task Force Without Belarus?Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka refused to sign an agreement Saturday that would create a rapid-reaction security force, casting doubt on Moscow’s plans to form a post-Soviet military alliance and suggesting that a serious rift in relations with Minsk continues.Lukashenka attended a Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in the Kyrgyz resort of Choplon-Ata with other heads of state from the seven-member body, but he made no public comments. He boycotted the last CSTO summit, held in Moscow in June, where Belarus was supposed to assume its rotating presidency. In a sign that Minsk was unrepentant for the slight, Moscow said it would continue to act in lieu of Belarus. We will hold “the CSTO’s technical presidency until Belarus is ready to take on this function fully,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday, Interfax reported. On a more positive note for the Kremlin, Kyrgyzstan agreed to let Russia bolster its troops in the country by opening a joint military training centre, according to a memorandum published on the Kremlin’s web site. Kyrgyzstan has said the facility will be located at an abandoned Soviet-era military base near the southern city of Osh, close to the Uzbek border. The memorandum allows Russia to locate “up to a battalion” of new troops in the country and station them at a training centre. By Nov. 1, the sides will sign an agreement on a “united Russian military base” that would include “all Russian military sites in the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, including the Russian air base in Kant.” Kyrgyzstan had previously denied that it would allow for a second Russian base, which could be seen as disturbing the balance of foreign powers there. The United States operates an air base in Manas, which it won permission to keep in June after promising more money. Lavrov suggested on Saturday that the terms of the deal — including the number of new Russian troops — could change by November. “All questions regarding the geographic parameters of the new Russian military presence and the financial details will be discussed. … The overall number will be determined by military specialists depending on the security needs of the region,” he said, Interfax reported. The Kyrgyz training centre was initially envisioned as a part of the CSTO rapid-response force, which was proposed in February to bolster military capability in energy-rich Central Asia, a Muslim region sensitive for Moscow’s security interests. It has also been described as boosting the military dimension of the alliance, which has served primarily as a forum for security consultations. The CSTO currently has a rapid-reaction force of about 3,000 but without a unified command. Belarus and Uzbekistan have refused to join, leaving remaining members Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the task. Uzbekistan, which experts believe has the strongest military capacity in the area, has veered from the regional tradition of Kremlin-friendly policies after Russia refused in November to side with Uzbekistan in Central Asia’s ongoing debate over water use. Relations with Belarus, once Russia’s closest ally, have deteriorated significantly in recent months. Minsk initiated unprecedented steps to achieve better ties with the European Union earlier this year, winning membership in the 27-member bloc’s Eastern Partnership program, which was duly criticized by Moscow. When Lukashenka snubbed the CSTO summit in June, an angry President Dmitry Medvedev complained that he had not even called to explain why. Lukashenka also skipped an informal Commonwealth of Independent States gathering in Moscow last month. Lukashenka’s stance is seen as a delicate balancing act between Moscow and the West, as his country is on the verge of bankruptcy. Belarus this year received $1.5 billion loans each from Russia and the International Monetary Fund. Russia has delayed another $500 million tranche, saying the country could go bankrupt as early as next year — a claim Lukashenka hotly denied. Alexei Malashenko, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the summit showed that the Belarusian president was just interested in garnering more bargaining power. “He will sign only if he gets something for it, first and foremost loans. For now, he is just using it as a lever against Russia,” he said. Malashenko argued that the rapid-reaction force was not worth much without Belarus. “It is just Russia, some Central Asian republics plus Armenia. That is not Moscow’s vision for this,” he said. He also warned that if Uzbekistan opted to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization, it might view the Russian base in Kyrgyzstan in a different light. “This might then be a threat to Uzbekistan’s security,” he said. Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Moscow-based CIS Institute, a think tank, said it was understandable that Belarus was not very interested in a rapid-reaction force in Central Asia. “[Lukashenka] does not see any particular danger for his country, which lies in a totally different area,” he said. Zharikhin added that the rapid-reaction force, which he described as “a security guarantee against terrorist actions in participating countries,” could probably do just as well without Belarusian participation. This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 21, No. 3 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2009 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmailcom
Nikolaus von Twickel
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