| home archive search downloads subscription contacts |
 | |||||||||
Precarious Russia Oil Deal May Hit Belarus RefinersBelarus may need to cut refinery runs after bending to Russian demands on the amount of oil it can import duty-free, traders said on Thursday, a day after the countries signed a deal to end a month-long oil dispute.But Russia's hard-won deal, which will secure the Kremlin a bigger share of oil revenues, may prove to be short-lived. The Belarusian government said in a statement it would pursue the removal of export tariffs in line with a planned customs union. "Within a customs union, the agreements reached in Moscow cannot exist for long," the Belarusian government said. Russia and Belarus agreed an oil supply deal on Wednesday, easing fears in Germany and Poland that the escalating dispute could affect deliveries of crude along a route carrying about 10 percent of European supplies from West Siberian oilfields. Russia agreed to supply 6.3 million tonnes of duty-free oil to Belarus, enough for its domestic consumption, with a proviso that this amount could be raised after September should the Belarussian economy exceed growth forecasts. "We are prepared to deliver all the oil Belarus needs for its own market without duties," Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko told reporters in Helsinki. But analysts said Moscow had won the biggest concessions. "On face value, Russia probably won this dispute, since Belarus wanted more oil exempt from export duties," said Chirvani Abdoullaev, senior oil and gas analyst at Alfa-Bank. Belarus, which signed the deal as supplies to its two refineries slowed to a trickle, must pay full export duties on the excess Russian crude it receives after paying only 35.6 percent last year. These volumes are likely to exceed 14 million tonnes, most of which is refined and re-exported. Several Russian traders said refinery runs in Belarus were almost certain to fall as a result. One trader said this could even force one of the two plants, Naftan or Mazyr, to close. "Refinery runs will definitely come down. The refineries were only surviving on the low duties," one trading source said. Belarussian state oil concern Belnaftakhim declined comment. CUSTOMS UNION Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimir Syamashka was quoted by agencies as saying Russian oil refined in Belarus and returned to Russia for export would be exempt from duties. Syamashka, who attended the talks in Moscow, also said Belarus would forge ahead with plans to modernise its two refineries. "Under no circumstances will we slow the tempo of reconstruction," he said in a separate statement. The dispute had the potential to flare up again, analysts said, as the planned customs union between Russia, Belarus and another ex-Soviet state, Kazakhstan, begins to take shape. Russian traders, who met with customs brokers on Thursday, said they had received few clues on what action to take next. "There is uncertainty about how the duty-free volumes will be spread throughout the course of the year, as January deliveries were imposed at 100 percent," one source said, adding that Belarus had not received any oil duty-free this month. Russia had agreed to an 11 percent hike in transit fees on crude that crosses the territory of Belarus en route to Europe, Syamashka was quoted as saying by Belarussian news agencies. "It's a material shift in pricing terms. Essentially, it will help the Russian budget," said Lev Snykov, oil and gas analyst at VTB Capital in Moscow. "Russia is running the pipeline business, which helps in resolving these issues." The deal might also give impetus to oil pipeline monopoly Transneft's project to build phase two of the Baltic Pipeline System, a 1,000-km (625-mile) route to the Baltic Sea that will bypass Belarus. "Diversifying, hedging your bets, protecting yourself makes sense," Abdoullaev said. (Additional reporting by Andrei Makhovsky in Minsk, Terhi Kinnunen in Helsinki and Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow; editing by Sue Thomas) This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 22, No. 1 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2010 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmailcom
|
|||||||||
| Rubriques |
Belarusian Culture
Belarusians Abroad
Contents
Economy
Editorial
Features
Chronicle of Events
Legacy of Chernobyl
Letters
Media Watch
News Briefs
- Culture & Society
- Freedom of Religion
- Independent Media
- Belarus & the World
- Human Rights
- Politics - Opposition
- Politics - Regime
Thoughts and Observations
| New Articles |
| In Belarus, a Slide Toward Eastern Aggression (23.01.2011) |
| No Business as Usual (23.01.2011) |
| STATEMENT (23.01.2011) |
| Wrong Carrot, Wrong Stick (23.01.2011) |
| Blood and Special Operations in Belarus Politics (23.01.2011) |
| StatementBy the Office for a Democratic Belarus (Brussels) And the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (23.01.2011) |
| A backfire in Belarus (23.01.2011) |
| Statement By the Rada of The Belarusian Democratic Republic in Exile 28th December 2010 (23.01.2011) |
| Declaration by the Coordinating Committee of Belarusians of Canada (23.01.2011) |
| Belarus: That’s enough democracy (23.01.2011) |
| A Nasty Surprise in Belarus (23.01.2011) |
| Demonstration in London (23.01.2011) |
| The Center for Belarusian Studies (23.01.2011) |
| Opinion - The EU Has no Choice But to Continue Dialogue With Belarus (23.01.2011) |
| Belarus Police Arrest Opposition Leaders (23.01.2011) |
| Readers' Favorites |
| Belarusian Weapons Exports:A Possible Source of Laundered Funds? (15580) |
| The Exchange Rate Policy for Belarus (15449) |
| Kitabs, the Unique Phenomenon of the Belarusian Language in "Encyclopedia of the Belarusian language" (15435) |
| Belarusica at the AAASS Convention (14435) |
| Vaclav Havel - in Defense of Jakub Kolas Humanities Lyceum (14380) |
| Putin Doctrine: Immediate Threat to Belarus (13979) |
| Belarusian Currency: Problems and Perspectives (13845) |
| Is Lukashenka Winning Back Hearts and Minds? (13496) |
| DZIADY and Kurapaty Unite the Opposition (13145) |
| Belarus Represented in the World Book Fair (13142) |
| Minsk Wants Compensation from Moscow for Abandoning National Currency (13135) |
| Opposition Forms New Pro-European Alliance (12980) |
| The Sad State of Agriculture (12594) |
| EU Aid Misuse Fears (12116) |
| The Third Wave, or the regimes current tactics in dealing with independent NGOs (11703) |