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Democracy Needs to Feel US SupportAt the end of May, one of the Belarusian opposition leaders – Alyaksandr Milinkevich – visited the United States. The visit was organized with the support of the European Union. Why the EU? European officials seek to consolidate their approach towards Belarus with an American approach and Mr. Milinkevich, in their view, was expected to facilitate the process. He held a number of meetings with US congressmen, officials at the State Department, National Security Council, and others. Mr. Milinkevich, a 2006 presidential contender, had constructive dialogues in high offices and summarized his impressions as follows: “There is a total understanding of our situation and our problems in Washington, DC.” So, there is an understanding, but does the understanding transform to enough US support?The European Union has recently changed its tactics towards the Belarusian regime, and has opened a window of opportunities. Belarus was included in the European Partnership project, and communications between Brussels and Minsk intensified. Moreover, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi became the first Western head of government in over a decade to pay an official visit to Minsk. At the same time, the United States has not been participating much in Belarusian matters. While the new administration concentrated its efforts on other international issues, Belarus only sporadically surfaced in US government documents. For instance, the Belarus Democracy Act has been renewed and sanctions against Belarusian petrochemical concern, Belnaftakhim, and its subsidiaries--one of the major money makers for Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime — have been introduced and then suspended. Even the issue of the US Embassy in Belarus virtually stalled. Two years ago, Belarus recalled its ambassador to the United States, and forced the departure of the US ambassador after a row over travel restrictions imposed on Mr. Lukashenka by Washington. Since then both embassies operate with a minimal number of diplomats. This situation primarily hurts ordinary Belarusians who have to travel to Moscow, Kyiv, or Warsaw at their own expense to obtain visas to visit relatives in the US or for other matters. Restoration of a full-fledged US Embassy in Belarus should be one of the US top priorities in Belarus. Overall, the United States should be more actively engaged in Belarusian issues. As Mr. Milinkevich fairly noted during the meeting with the Belarusian Diaspora in New York, there is still a danger of Belarus losing its independence. It might happen through an increasing economic dependence on Russia. During the recent world financial crisis, Belarus obtained vital loans partly through the channels of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and Russia. It is a good sign that the West started to cooperate with Belarus economically even if it cannot do the same politically. In fact, Belarus-EU trade relations have improved over the past several years. The US can also facilitate this process. Unlike the EU though, it should use economic leverage to discipline the Belarusian regime. Additional Western financial assistance or suspension of sanctions should be a response to concrete steps of the Belarusian government like releasing political prisoners, or improving elections legislation. Yes, it is very important to coordinate the Belarus policy between the US and the EU. However, the positions should not necessarily coincide as the Europeans are more concerned about economic cooperation with Belarus, while the Americans scrutinize human rights issues and the democratization process. One of the clear achievements of Mr. Milinkevich’s visit was the decision of US Congress to hold hearings on human rights in Belarus. Meanwhile, the issue of sanctions is a controversial one, since the delicate balance between putting pressure on the government while trying not to hurt the ordinary population should be maintained. Mr. Milinkevich, for instance, is in favor of visa bans for Belarusian officials but against economic sanctions which, in his opinion, affect ordinary Belarusians. Recently, the US prolonged a partial suspension of the sanctions against two of Belnaftakhim’s subsidiaries, AAT Lakafarba, a paint and varnish company, and AAT Shklovalakno, a glass fiber manufacturer. This move understandably prompted a positive reaction from the Belarusian side. On May, 28th, Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Savinykh expressed Minsk’s readiness for “constructive and systemic dialogue” with the American partners. In fact, at around the same time the head of the Lukashenka’s Administration, Uladzimir Makei, was supposed to pay a visit to Washington according to some sources. However, for some reason the visit was postponed. On one hand, direct meetings of US officials and representatives of the Belarusian ruling elite can be beneficial for both sides. Mr. Milinkevich expressed an opinion that American side can use it as an opportunity to convey its message to the Belarusian regime, to inform what is expected from it, and what it can get in return. On the other hand, there is a danger of legitimizing Lukashenka’s regime in the eyes of international and domestic observers. Embracing the current Belarusian government will deliver a fatal blow to the country’s democratization attempts. It is vital for Belarusian pro-democratic activists to see and feel US support. Belarusian opposition cannot rely on domestic financial assistance as businesses supporting pro-democracy activities are threatened with closure. Therefore, the US should extend its financial and informational support for Belarusian civil society, opposition parties, and independent media. It is even more relevant now in the view of the Belarusian presidential elections, which will most likely occur in the fall of this year. Mr. Milinkevich’s visit highlighted the need for such support. At the same time, the US should also constantly remind the regime that without steps towards improving its human rights record, elections legislation, and independent media access, there will be no overtures from the West towards Belarus. Ilya Kunitski is a historian from Belarus. He was recently awarded a Masters degree in Political Science by the New York University with a focus on International Relations. This article appeared in Belarusian Review, Vol. 22, No. 2 --------------------------------------------- Copyright 2010 Belarusian Review All rights reserved. belarusianreview@hotmailcom Ilya Kunitski
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