NATO Summit of November 2006

Belarusian Review had its own correspondent at NATO Summit in Riga, Latvia on November 27-29, 2006 - Mr. Raman Kavalchuk.
Since our correspondent's report was received too late to meet the Winter 2006 news deadline, we are publishing excerpts now:

The first important event in the framework of NATO Summit in Riga took place on November 26, when the Young Leaders Forum "Building Bridges for the Next Generation" gathered 49 distinguished politicians and public figures from NATO member states, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Middle East to discuss the role of transatlantic alliance in securing stability in vulnerable regions of the planet.

The Riga Conference, also held within the framework of the summit, was an official meeting on the level of heads of NATO member states and their governments.

Exclusive interview to Belarusian Review by Mr. Andrey Sannikau, former deputy foreign minister of Republic of Belarus, and international coordinator of Charter97:

Did you find the Riga Conference important for the Belarusian delegation here ?
Yes, we cannot underestimate the invitation for the Belarusian opposition to this Summit, since this is the place where global policies are shaped. Here we were given the opportunity to learn the future policies of NATO an EU regarding Belarus - what we should expect from our neighbors. Obviously, none of Lukashenka's regime representatives have been invited, since the government in Minsk has no independent policy towards NATO. Meanwhile Russia is carefully monitoring the limited Partnership for Peace program, and informally imposing certain restrictions on it.
In my opinion, the most positive impact on Belarus was produced by the US president George W. Bush, who, in his address to the participants of the Riga Conference and the Young Leaders' Forum, presented his vision of a free, united and democratic Europe that includes Belarus. It breaks down previous longstanding illusions about solving the issue of Belarus with Moscow's assistance.

What will the result of the NATO summit mean for you and for the perspectives of Belarus' relations with the Alliance?
First of all, it seems wrong to make conclusions based only on relations between NATO and Belarus. The Riga Conference covered much broader subjects: further challenges, agenda and strategy of the Alliance; the European neighborhood policy. In this context, NATO's policy towards Belarus, Ukraine and Georgia became a serious dicussion topic during the Summit, as well as Russia's future, its government, its domestic political process and its influence on European affairs.
The current energy supply crisis and issues related to energy security have been widely discussed here. Not just here, but also in Minsk, where Mr. Lukashenka is looking for solutions convenient for him. In this concern, Senator Lugar outlined in his speech the ways to protect Europe, the US, their allies and partners from the potential threat of irresponsible use of energy as a weapon by states rich in natural resources - particularly by Russia, which is already taking advantage of its own capacity.
Ukraine and Georgia are seeking to secure their positions in the world. This process is of critical importance for Belarus, as the model of these countries? integration into EU and NATO is currently being worked out. Georgia faces the dilemma of its own territorial integrity, while Ukraine can't yet clearly indicate its foreign policy vectors.

What do the European governments expect from the continuing conflict between Lukashenka's regime and Russia ? Do they observe an opportunity for substantial changes in Lukashenka's political priorities, or even the possibility of changing the regime itself ?
There are certain principles and values that are respected in Europe and must be adhered to in order to begin a real dialogue with any country. These principles and values are clearly described in the November 2006 EU proposals to Belarus. I am not sure that there is a political conflict between Mr. Lukashenka and the Kremlin, since certain agreements between Belarus and Russia, including a close military bilateral cooperation, are still valid.
Mr. Putin simply uses Lukashenka's regime to promote the controversial initiatives of Russian diplomacy. Therefore he could be ready for a compomise with the dictator in exchange for control over the most lucrative assets and infrastructure of Belarusian economy - primarily over the national energy transit company Beltransgaz. Even the Belarusian power elite is not aware of what is going on between Mr. Lukashenka and the Kremlin. It is an absolutely paradoxical situation.

Excerpts from the address by U.S. Senator Richard Lugar:
" Russia's turning off energy deliveries to Ukraine demonstrated how tempting it is to use energy to achieve political aims.
.. Russia retreated from the standoff after a strong Western reaction, but would NATO have responded if Russia had maintained the embargo? The Ukrainian economy and military could have been crippled without a shot being fired, and the dangers and losses to several NATO members would have mounted significantly... NATO must determine what steps it is willing to take if Poland, Germany, Hungary, Latvia or another member state is threatened as Ukraine was.
...The Alliance must avow that defending against such attacks is an Article Five commitment. (Article Five of the NATO charter identifies an attack on one member as an attack on all.) ... In preparing for such a commitment, NATO leaders should develop a strategy that includes the re-supply of a victim of an aggressive nergy suspension.
... Marc Grossman, the former US Under Secretary of State for Policy, has proposed reviving the REFORGER exercises of the Cold War. These exercises were carried out to prepare for the massive troop and equipment re-supply mission that would be required to thwart a Soviet attack. A new REFORGER should focus on how the Alliance would supply a beleaguered member with the energy resources needed to withstand geo-strategic blackmail. This will not be easy or comfortable for the Alliance. But, if we fail to prepare, we will intensify our predicament.?

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This article appeared in
Belarusian Review, Vol. 19, No.1
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5 april 2007
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